EDIT: For clarification, I feel that the current situation on the ground in the war (vs. say a year ago) might indicate that an attack on Russia might not result in instant nuclear war, which is what prompted my question. I am well aware of the “instant nuclear Armageddon” opinion.

Serious question. I don’t need to be called stupid. I realize nuclear war is bad. Thanks!

  • NoiseColor@startrek.website
    link
    fedilink
    arrow-up
    111
    arrow-down
    8
    ·
    3 months ago

    Nato would completely overwhelm Russia, but not before nukes would fly from various places and hit major cities in the western world. In the retaliation, all of Russia would be destroyed, world in turmoil…

    • Cyrus Draegur@lemm.ee
      link
      fedilink
      English
      arrow-up
      61
      arrow-down
      24
      ·
      3 months ago

      I have some doubts that Russia’s nuclear weapons are even in operational order.

      maybe they try to launch them, and they just self-destruct inside their silos. or, they fly, but fall out of the sky still in Russia, or, they actually fly all the way to the destination, but fail to detonate.

      to be sure, this is not something that we should wager on. I just think it would be funny if it turned out that way. just a fun little daydream of imperialist fascist scum getting put in the ground where they fucking belong.

      • Davel23@fedia.io
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        138
        arrow-down
        1
        ·
        3 months ago

        Russia is believed to have about 6500 nuclear weapons. Even if ninety-nine percent of them fail, that’s still 65 cities turned to ash.

        • Altima NEO@lemmy.zip
          link
          fedilink
          English
          arrow-up
          13
          arrow-down
          4
          ·
          3 months ago

          That seems like a ridiculous number of nuclear munitions. Like why so many?

          • magnetosphere@fedia.io
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            39
            ·
            3 months ago

            I recall hearing something about real arms reduction making nuclear war seem like a sane, viable option.

            The theory is that we’re safer if all sides know they can completely annihilate each other. No world leaders genuinely want nuclear war (despite what they say, threaten, or imply), so nobody launches a nuke. Flaw - that theory assumes all leaders are sane and rational.

            • WildPalmTree@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              4
              ·
              3 months ago

              “The theory”… You make it sound like MAD is some obscure fact. I so hope that is not the case. But maybe… Fuck…

              • magnetosphere@fedia.io
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                3
                ·
                3 months ago

                I’m not trying to. This was MANY years ago, so I’m being cautious (perhaps overly so) with the wording.

          • Imperor@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            29
            arrow-down
            2
            ·
            3 months ago

            The US and the USSR engaged in a race to have the most nukes. After the fall of the Sowjet Union international treaties were put in place to reduce the number of nukes in both east and west.

            Don’t quote me, but if I remember correctly, at the height of the cold war, both sides had more than 12.000 nukes each.

            Humanity had enough fire power to delete the entire globe roughly 40x over then. Why? Because bigger is better.

            • Cryophilia@lemmy.world
              link
              fedilink
              arrow-up
              1
              ·
              3 months ago

              That’s dumb. They didn’t do it just for shits and giggles. They did it because in a nuclear exchange, you only get one shot so you need to overwhelm your opponent’s defenses.

              • ilinamorato@lemmy.world
                link
                fedilink
                arrow-up
                1
                ·
                3 months ago

                Partially yes, but there’s an even more mundane reason; with nuclear weapons, if the other side has 5, you need 6: five to destroy their five, and one to destroy their capital. But when they discover that, they’ll decide that they need seven: 6 to destroy your 6, and one to destroy your capital. Add in some uncertainty to that feedback loop, and an arms race immediately becomes an exponential curve moderated only by the amount of time production takes and the amount of resources each nation is willing to commit at any given time.

                There’s a very real way in which the proliferation of arms is, itself, an uncontrolled nuclear reaction.

          • rc__buggy@sh.itjust.works
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            12
            ·
            3 months ago

            MAD theory and both sides realize that nuke silos are targets for nuke weapons so they had “extras” because everyone knows some won’t leave the tube.

          • GBU_28@lemm.ee
            link
            fedilink
            English
            arrow-up
            9
            ·
            3 months ago

            Imagine your opponent gets the jump on you in some massive way. Your land based nukes have to launch from somewhere and the enemy is pointing to every one they have sussed out.

            You want to still get a meaningful # in the air if the worst happens

          • chiliedogg@lemmy.world
            link
            fedilink
            arrow-up
            1
            ·
            3 months ago

            Because it’s a hell of a deterrent. If we strategically destroy 99% of the arsenal they’re still capable of effectively wiping out any adversary.

            There’s a reason we haven’t been in a shooting war with Russia.

        • superkret@feddit.org
          link
          fedilink
          arrow-up
          1
          ·
          3 months ago

          More likely several hundred, not 65.
          Each nuke carries multiple warheads that split up in space and fly to individual targets.

      • grte@lemmy.ca
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        35
        ·
        edit-2
        3 months ago

        You don’t have to take Russia’s word on it. USA and Russia inspected each other’s nuclear arsenal as part of the New START treaty until the beginning of covid.

      • magnetosphere@fedia.io
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        14
        arrow-down
        3
        ·
        3 months ago

        The imperialist fascist scum would be launching the nukes from the safety of their elaborate, well-stocked, and expensive bomb shelters. I don’t disagree with your opinion of those people, but it’s vital to remember that the biggest victims would be the millions of civilians who have already suffered under their rule.

      • Rhaedas@fedia.io
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        9
        ·
        3 months ago

        Even failures could be bad, for nearby areas or the world. Just a missile falling and then burning is going to release stuff into the air and water. A far cry from a working launch, but still a mess and that’s just one missile. What is the probability that they all fail to even launch or just do something and crash inert? Not big, I would guess. Even a badly maintained nuclear arsenal has its own deterrence.

      • Jiggle_Physics@lemmy.world
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        7
        ·
        3 months ago

        The IAEA and the START treaty mean we have inspectors that can monitor the actual capabilities of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. According to these inspectors Russia has, at least, 2000 completely operational nukes.

      • superkret@feddit.org
        link
        fedilink
        arrow-up
        1
        ·
        edit-2
        3 months ago

        No one is willing to bet the existence of human civilization on that.
        Even 2-3 working nukes (out of thousands) would destroy dozens of cities (they each carry multiple warheads that split up in space).
        And it would still trigger a retaliatory strike that could cause a nuclear winter.