I think if NVIDIA moves outside of the US, Trump would have no choice but to keep exempting their products from the import tariffs since there’s no US-made alternative at the moment and there won’t be one for a while. But NVIDIA may not have a choice but to move out, especially if they want to keep their market position against Chinese firms over the long run. If they stay in the US they face a likely future of being locked into the US market with the rest of the world being dominated by whatever competitive accelerators come out of China. If they move out, and especially if they move to China, they could become the CCP-blessed domestic AI hardware maker, before another Chinese firm is able to get there. They’ll have the world market to export to as well as the US, for as long as the US doesn’t have a competitive product. After that it’ll be just the rest of the world since China’s NVIDIA product would always have price advantage compared to US offerings. Of course under a China NVIDIA scenario they likely won’t be able to keep their IP fully closed or their profit margins within China, and perhaps abroad.
Bigger problem than tmsc is that China will just “legitimately” steal all IP and replace them with another company within a year. Moving to China is insane if you don’t plan to bend over for the party.
Yes. There are plenty hugely successful Chinese companies. The hypothetical I’m considering is NVIDIA becoming a successful Chinese company, not an American company trying to do product development in China. It won’t be a foreign company to steal IP from and there won’t be a need to replace it with another one.
True. That’s a problem with the China route at this point. In a few years however I’d expect SMIC to be competitive with TSMC. They’re doing their damnest to get there and given the pressure and resources thrown at it, I think it’s a matter of time.
I think if NVIDIA moves outside of the US, Trump would have no choice but to keep exempting their products from the import tariffs since there’s no US-made alternative at the moment and there won’t be one for a while. But NVIDIA may not have a choice but to move out, especially if they want to keep their market position against Chinese firms over the long run. If they stay in the US they face a likely future of being locked into the US market with the rest of the world being dominated by whatever competitive accelerators come out of China. If they move out, and especially if they move to China, they could become the CCP-blessed domestic AI hardware maker, before another Chinese firm is able to get there. They’ll have the world market to export to as well as the US, for as long as the US doesn’t have a competitive product. After that it’ll be just the rest of the world since China’s NVIDIA product would always have price advantage compared to US offerings. Of course under a China NVIDIA scenario they likely won’t be able to keep their IP fully closed or their profit margins within China, and perhaps abroad.
Bigger problem than tmsc is that China will just “legitimately” steal all IP and replace them with another company within a year. Moving to China is insane if you don’t plan to bend over for the party.
Yes. There are plenty hugely successful Chinese companies. The hypothetical I’m considering is NVIDIA becoming a successful Chinese company, not an American company trying to do product development in China. It won’t be a foreign company to steal IP from and there won’t be a need to replace it with another one.
Right, for profit companies famously have a history of just handing themselves over to totalitarian regimes.
China has no successful companies that aren’t approved, controlled and often subsidized by the party.
There is a problem though, if they move to China they can’t produce at TSMC. That is why I stated outside US jurisdiction. Apart from that I agree.
True. That’s a problem with the China route at this point. In a few years however I’d expect SMIC to be competitive with TSMC. They’re doing their damnest to get there and given the pressure and resources thrown at it, I think it’s a matter of time.