If they do, that makes it 300x easier for me to decide who never to buy from again.
Hahaha I was just theorizing this morning that they would jump to China with all the chaos happening over here. Gotta make the line go up.
Funny I was pondering the same thing. What would Trump do if Nvidia moved to somewhere outside US jurisdiction?
It’s very serious for Nvidia to lose about 45% of their revenue. But they also need to keep their development teams running.
Can they do that if they move?https://asymmetric-investing.beehiiv.com/p/nvidia-s-china-problem-big-tech-s-new-headwind
But this is really serious for Nvidia! As far as I can figure it’s about $33 billion profits in a year they stand to lose!!!
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/
Based on market cap and P/E.
Would they even need to move? Just create a China based subsidiary and sell them consultancy in the form of expert chip designers.
I think if NVIDIA moves outside of the US, Trump would have no choice but to keep exempting their products from the import tariffs since there’s no US-made alternative at the moment and there won’t be one for a while. But NVIDIA may not have a choice but to move out, especially if they want to keep their market position against Chinese firms over the long run. If they stay in the US they face a likely future of being locked into the US market with the rest of the world being dominated by whatever competitive accelerators come out of China. If they move out, and especially if they move to China, they could become the CCP-blessed domestic AI hardware maker, before another Chinese firm is able to get there. They’ll have the world market to export to as well as the US, for as long as the US doesn’t have a competitive product. After that it’ll be just the rest of the world since China’s NVIDIA product would always have price advantage compared to US offerings. Of course under a China NVIDIA scenario they likely won’t be able to keep their IP fully closed or their profit margins within China, and perhaps abroad.
Bigger problem than tmsc is that China will just “legitimately” steal all IP and replace them with another company within a year. Moving to China is insane if you don’t plan to bend over for the party.
There is a problem though, if they move to China they can’t produce at TSMC. That is why I stated outside US jurisdiction. Apart from that I agree.
True. That’s a problem with the China route at this point. In a few years however I’d expect SMIC to be competitive with TSMC. They’re doing their damnest to get there and given the pressure and resources thrown at it, I think it’s a matter of time.
Team Green plans to get closer to the Chinese markets by building a dedicated R&D center in China as well, which means that NVIDIA is serious about this move.
Yup, of course they are. As I said the other day, US firms for which their userbase is not the product face long term downside as the US state cuts them off of foreign markets or the foreign markets cuts them off as retaliation to the US state trade policies. If they keep their product development in the US they’re facing reduced markets and increased dependence on the US state. And of course increased competition by foreign (e.g. China’s Huawei) firms catching up to fill the demand gap. If they manage to fill the gap with price competitive product, there’s no coming back for NVIDIA.
