If you’re counting on one of them dying before the election, keep dreaming. FFS, Trump might very well run while incarcerated and it probably won’t dissuade anyone who is already committed for him.
I’d put more money on one of them dying than seeing the inside of a prison cell. The judge in the Trump trial explicitly stated that he did not want to put a sitting president in prison.
Trump isn’t a sitting president yet, he’s still a former president.
Judge Merchan said that before the guilty verdict, when Trump violated his gag order 10 times consecutively. His next words after “I don’t want to put you in jail” were “…but I will if you continue to jeopardize the judicial process.” (paraphrasing). Obviously, the judge did not want to resort to jail for criminal contempt because the case had a lot of eyes on it and jumping to jail before issuing warnings and fines gives the impression of impropriety or bias, which could have been grounds for a mistrial had he taken Trump’s bait.
Most people think he’s going to walk on the basis that he has no prior criminal convictions and that he’s the presumptive Republican nominee, but there’s also the fact that he’s shown no remorse for his crimes even after the verdict and that allowing him to escape a prison term with a slap on the wrist house arrest or a fine will not realistically deter him or others from committing the same crime.
I’d say it’s still a good possibility that he sees jail. Probably not for the max 3 year sentence, but some token amount of incarceration would be appropriate. He’ll likely be out before taking office should he actually win, and they’ll probably make special provisions for him to continue campaigning, so he probably won’t even spend that much time in an actual cell.
The real kicker is his next conviction will mean he has to contend with a criminal history, which will vastly increase his chances of receiving actual prison time. That all hinges on him not getting elected and pardoning himself for all the federal crimes he’s accused of, the most severe of which being his role in the J6 insurrection and the classified documents case which could easily land him in prison for the rest of his life.
His next words after “I don’t want to put you in jail” were “…but I will if you continue to jeopardize the judicial process.”
After the tenth contempt citation.
Most people think he’s going to walk on the basis that he has no prior criminal convictions and that he’s the presumptive Republican nominee, but there’s also the fact that he’s shown no remorse for his crimes even after the verdict and that allowing him to escape a prison term with a slap on the wrist house arrest or a fine will not realistically deter him or others from committing the same crime.
I doubt he’ll make this particular mistake another time, mostly because he’s got too much media scrutiny to still run around with high end call girls.
But when it comes to the actual governance? He’s not going to get punished for that.
I’d say it’s still a good possibility that he sees jail
I would not put any amount of money on it.
The real kicker is his next conviction will mean he has to contend with a criminal history
All the rest of the cases are either dropped or delayed until after the election. Either way, there’s not going to be a “next conviction” before it no longer matters.
Not sure why you cut that out of my original paragraph as if I didn’t already mention it.
I doubt he’ll make this particular mistake another time, mostly because he’s got too much media scrutiny to still run around with high end call girls.
Oh no, Trump has learned a valuable lesson, just not the one he was supposed to learn. He was supposed to learn “I should not commit fraud”, but instead he learned “Why bother with fraud when my idiot supporters would have voted for me anyway?”.
All the rest of the cases are either dropped or delayed until after the election. Either way, there’s not going to be a “next conviction” before it no longer matters.
Which is why it’s all the more important to keep him out of office. I understand the cynical outlook on the judicial process, especially after what we’ve seen so far. Between sympathetic judges treating Trump with kid gloves and him getting released on bail after stealing classified documents, it really does highlight that we are living in a two-tiered justice system. But I still believe that the process is working despite it’s obvious flaws, and that sooner or later, justice will catch up to Trump and he’ll be out of free passes.
A lot of people said that we would never even get as far as we have. It was “Trump will never be indicted”, which gave way to “There won’t ever be a trial”, to “He won’t be found guilty” to “they won’t sentence him to any prison time”.
We can only wait and see next month what they decide to do.
I love how you accuse someone of being wrong- then go on to say a bunch of unproven opinionated nonsense. It’s almost as if you don’t really know what you’re talking about.
Edit if you think the dnc is going to flexibly react to new information, and bring up a non establishment candidate, at this part of the game, well, you do you.
You seemingly need to hurl insults to disagree with people. Thats pretty lame. Disagree with my position all you like, that’s fine. But acting out isn’t helping your position.
So yeah, let’s chat again later on. I personally don’t think it’ll be anyone but trump or Biden.
Edit edit still no examples or evidence. When you’re suggesting things other than the norm/the status quo are gonna happen, you need to show up with more than a wall of text and a lot of sass lol
I feel like you’re technically right that there is a (highly improbable) chance it will not be between Biden or trump, but it’s not something I’d lean on this hard, haha.
It’s up to the DNC as to which candidate takes the running ballot. I’m betting there are a lot of conversations right now about who will be that person.
You are half right and half wrong because that decision will come down to whether establishment Democrats or populist Democrats win.
And to be quiet frank, I don’t even think the DNC gets a say. Since Biden is the incumbent, unless he bows out voluntarily, I don’t think we the people or the DNC get to choose.
Our hands are really tied when it comes to the presidential frontrunner, unfortunately.
It’s always telling when some one insists that a statement is true when they themselves know that it isn’t.
It’s 💯 the case the Biden isn’t the nominee today. I’m not arguing if it’s going to be a progressive or a insider that replaces him. Frankly, I could give a shit because either will be doing instantly better than Biden.
Biden is replaceable and there is a cult of personality that has developed that believes this isn’t the case. They’re wrong. There as delusional as the right wing MAGA crowd and their doing MAGAs work for them as the useful idiots that they are.
It’s important to keep it clear that I’m not arguing that some how magically were going to replace Biden with a progressive. I’m arguing that needs to, and will be, replaced. That’s what Thursday showed us, and I know for a fact that the Beltway heard this.
The party that needs to be convinced is Harris. And I think she can be. All of these machinations are happening this weekend, as we speak.
My called shot: Biden steps down as early as Monday, as late as two weeks from Monday. I’m going to be making some calls and seeing what tea I can find spilled.
I never refuted your claim in certainty, rebutting with my own truth statements. In my comment, I pointed to the variables in effect leading to whether Biden stays in the race or bows out. Realistically, it’s uncertain at this moment.
I will say that if and once donors dry up, I do think that the DNC will take action. What action that is will depend.
Yeah this is just false.
Love that ratio!
Which candidate of our only 2 parties that matter isn’t senile this cycle?
He’s probably a brain parasite guy.
Poor little guy starved to death.
I support the brain worms for all American humans policy.
He said, with no examples or evidence of any kind.
Edit the way "vote’ is used in that sentence isn’t so much a ballot transaction…it’s more a “choice”.
Biden or trump WILL be the next president.
This sucks but cannot be avoided.
Edit edit choose left right or abstain, it’s all the same. A senile president will be the next president
Both are over the mean life expectancy, neither is in particularly great health, and it’s another six months until the inauguration.
Sure. But the chances of both of them croaking in the next 6 months are very low.
Biden has the whole US government at his back, highly trained and motivated to not let the sitting US president die.
Trump, well, terrible bastards seem to never die.
The way Biden looked with a simple cough? And with the physical burden a continuous high stakes campaign puts on a candidate?
Wouldn’t even be the first time a President campaigned himself into an early grave. Harrison, Taylor, Harding, and FDR all leap to mind.
All the SS agents in the world can’t save you from COVID
If you’re counting on one of them dying before the election, keep dreaming. FFS, Trump might very well run while incarcerated and it probably won’t dissuade anyone who is already committed for him.
I’d put more money on one of them dying than seeing the inside of a prison cell. The judge in the Trump trial explicitly stated that he did not want to put a sitting president in prison.
Trump isn’t a sitting president yet, he’s still a former president.
Judge Merchan said that before the guilty verdict, when Trump violated his gag order 10 times consecutively. His next words after “I don’t want to put you in jail” were “…but I will if you continue to jeopardize the judicial process.” (paraphrasing). Obviously, the judge did not want to resort to jail for criminal contempt because the case had a lot of eyes on it and jumping to jail before issuing warnings and fines gives the impression of impropriety or bias, which could have been grounds for a mistrial had he taken Trump’s bait.
Most people think he’s going to walk on the basis that he has no prior criminal convictions and that he’s the presumptive Republican nominee, but there’s also the fact that he’s shown no remorse for his crimes even after the verdict and that allowing him to escape a prison term with a slap on the wrist house arrest or a fine will not realistically deter him or others from committing the same crime.
I’d say it’s still a good possibility that he sees jail. Probably not for the max 3 year sentence, but some token amount of incarceration would be appropriate. He’ll likely be out before taking office should he actually win, and they’ll probably make special provisions for him to continue campaigning, so he probably won’t even spend that much time in an actual cell.
The real kicker is his next conviction will mean he has to contend with a criminal history, which will vastly increase his chances of receiving actual prison time. That all hinges on him not getting elected and pardoning himself for all the federal crimes he’s accused of, the most severe of which being his role in the J6 insurrection and the classified documents case which could easily land him in prison for the rest of his life.
After the tenth contempt citation.
I doubt he’ll make this particular mistake another time, mostly because he’s got too much media scrutiny to still run around with high end call girls.
But when it comes to the actual governance? He’s not going to get punished for that.
I would not put any amount of money on it.
All the rest of the cases are either dropped or delayed until after the election. Either way, there’s not going to be a “next conviction” before it no longer matters.
Not sure why you cut that out of my original paragraph as if I didn’t already mention it.
Oh no, Trump has learned a valuable lesson, just not the one he was supposed to learn. He was supposed to learn “I should not commit fraud”, but instead he learned “Why bother with fraud when my idiot supporters would have voted for me anyway?”.
Which is why it’s all the more important to keep him out of office. I understand the cynical outlook on the judicial process, especially after what we’ve seen so far. Between sympathetic judges treating Trump with kid gloves and him getting released on bail after stealing classified documents, it really does highlight that we are living in a two-tiered justice system. But I still believe that the process is working despite it’s obvious flaws, and that sooner or later, justice will catch up to Trump and he’ll be out of free passes.
A lot of people said that we would never even get as far as we have. It was “Trump will never be indicted”, which gave way to “There won’t ever be a trial”, to “He won’t be found guilty” to “they won’t sentence him to any prison time”.
We can only wait and see next month what they decide to do.
Removed by mod
I love how you accuse someone of being wrong- then go on to say a bunch of unproven opinionated nonsense. It’s almost as if you don’t really know what you’re talking about.
Lol
Edit if you think the dnc is going to flexibly react to new information, and bring up a non establishment candidate, at this part of the game, well, you do you.
You seemingly need to hurl insults to disagree with people. Thats pretty lame. Disagree with my position all you like, that’s fine. But acting out isn’t helping your position.
So yeah, let’s chat again later on. I personally don’t think it’ll be anyone but trump or Biden.
Edit edit still no examples or evidence. When you’re suggesting things other than the norm/the status quo are gonna happen, you need to show up with more than a wall of text and a lot of sass lol
Who says it won’t be an establishment candidate?
I need a remindme bot for a year out, lol.
I feel like you’re technically right that there is a (highly improbable) chance it will not be between Biden or trump, but it’s not something I’d lean on this hard, haha.
It’s not improbable at all.
Chill, mate. Go for a walk…
It’s up to the DNC as to which candidate takes the running ballot. I’m betting there are a lot of conversations right now about who will be that person.
You are half right and half wrong because that decision will come down to whether establishment Democrats or populist Democrats win.
And to be quiet frank, I don’t even think the DNC gets a say. Since Biden is the incumbent, unless he bows out voluntarily, I don’t think we the people or the DNC get to choose.
Our hands are really tied when it comes to the presidential frontrunner, unfortunately.
It’s always telling when some one insists that a statement is true when they themselves know that it isn’t.
It’s 💯 the case the Biden isn’t the nominee today. I’m not arguing if it’s going to be a progressive or a insider that replaces him. Frankly, I could give a shit because either will be doing instantly better than Biden.
Biden is replaceable and there is a cult of personality that has developed that believes this isn’t the case. They’re wrong. There as delusional as the right wing MAGA crowd and their doing MAGAs work for them as the useful idiots that they are.
It’s important to keep it clear that I’m not arguing that some how magically were going to replace Biden with a progressive. I’m arguing that needs to, and will be, replaced. That’s what Thursday showed us, and I know for a fact that the Beltway heard this.
The party that needs to be convinced is Harris. And I think she can be. All of these machinations are happening this weekend, as we speak.
My called shot: Biden steps down as early as Monday, as late as two weeks from Monday. I’m going to be making some calls and seeing what tea I can find spilled.
I never refuted your claim in certainty, rebutting with my own truth statements. In my comment, I pointed to the variables in effect leading to whether Biden stays in the race or bows out. Realistically, it’s uncertain at this moment.
I will say that if and once donors dry up, I do think that the DNC will take action. What action that is will depend.
It’s going to be an exciting few days/weeks.